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Shadows from a Future Arriving

by: Dark Wraith

U.S. stocks declined sharply on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 242.66, or -1.97 percent, to 12,075.96; the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 28.65, or -2.04 percent, to 1,377.95; and the NASDAQ Composite index slid 51.72, or -2.15 percent, to 2,350.57.

This broad-based stock slaughter occurred despite the fact that Vice President Dick Cheney was not disturbed today by an Afghan suicide bomber blowing himself up along with a whole bunch of other people within earshot range of our war-hero Veep. As I pointed out after the last plunge two weeks ago, the stock markets didn't give a rat's hind end about what had happened to disturb Mr. Cheney's Happy Place that day. More broadly, today's slam on stock prices wasn't merely the result, as some in the media have claimed, of sub-prime lenders shutting down their easy-loan money windows, either.

What's happening is the result of an accumulation of events that are, in their aggregate, deeply changing the configuration of the United States with respect to the rest of the world insofar as financial matters are concerned. Whether or not these sea changes are permanent, they are certainly long-term. Later this week, I shall offer Part Two of my series, "The Economics of Wreckage," of which Part One was published here last week.

For the time being, suffice it to note that there is good news and bad news. The good news is that we shall slowly close the trade deficits we have run for so many years, and we shall eventually close our federal budget deficits, too, the ones—quite ironically but not surprisingly—systematically racked up by the fiscally conservative Republicans over the tenure of the Presidency of George W. Bush. Furthermore, we might even see a nice little side effect of fewer illegal aliens slipping into the country, something that has frothed the mouths of populist neo-fascist commentators like CNN howler Lou Dobbs, who pretends to be for some middle-class America of which he is not a part while he foments hate against people who aren't the root of the decay this country is experiencing.

More good news, notwithstanding the posturing of Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), is that Halliburton might not be the only corporate parasite on the United States Treasury that will decide it's time to set up base in more profitable lands of far away places.

Athough we shall become a poorer nation—quite noticeably so—over the coming years, we shall make exports that are cheap in other countries, we shall—quite likely, though, with a considerable amount of pain—learn to lose our appetite for borrowed success, and we shall become less beholden to the fascists, Communists, mercantilists, and all manner of other thugs to whom we have been groveling in this new century for the money to pay for the Republicans' wildly irresponsible tax cuts and the neo-conservatives' wildly irresponsible wars.

The bad news is that we shall make cheap exports in part because we shall be the cheap labor, and the companies that hire us will be those from other countries who gathered American dollars in massive quantities during the years when we were sending greenbacks overseas by buying cheap foreign imports. We shall close our budget deficits because we will have no capacity whatsoever to afford a government that hands money to the people in social welfare programs, universal health care, or even rigorous enforcement of regulations on food, workplace safety, and a whole host of other luxuries to which we thought we might be entitled in the here and now or in some not-too-distant future.

We shall remain, of course, a sovereign nation, but ours will be the sovereignty of the weak, and this in a world of great and small predators building powerful, adventuresome armed forces, monstrous weapons, and exclusionary alliances drawn in a world soil fertile with the toxic stew of ancient sectarian religious bonds, unmitigated economic greed, and unstoppable sensibilities of destiny.

Others of this harsh world will pick up the ball our own neo-conservatives so wrongly thought was our comparative advantage. It wasn't, and the legions of the secular and religious Right simply didn't understand that. Neither did most Americans, particularly those who voted so cynically for the promised fist that never should have been raised the way it was.

On a personal, I shall perhaps live long enough to see life in America become difficult enough that the Christian extremists wagging their finger at me to live by their morally miserable code will be too busy finding food to fund their polemical demagogues. To the same extent, perhaps I shall live long enough to see people grasp that Al Gore's finger-wagging on "THE Single Most Important Issue of Our Time," isn't quite so important for an average American as finding a job that pays enough to keep body and soul together in a degraded economy where high-minded "futures" must yield to daily survival imperatives.

I might even, in my most fantastic moments of hope, imagine people coming to learn the sheer power that arises from a moderation that rejects fear-whipped policies of the extremists and embraces carefully planned, frugal behaviors of far more enduring benefit to the individual and to the society.

I shall do everything I possibly can to suppress those flights of personal fantasy; but should I fail to keep myself from a short moment of false hope, I shall, at the very least, stop myself from laughing hysterically in the aftermath of such fond weakness.



The Dark Wraith trusts that each and every reader has a good place far from the grim land of the future.


Excerpted from the unpublished "Open Forum of March 13, 2007" at The Dark Wraith Forums, which will be fully active once again once the Website has been removed from Blogger to the new publishing platform, NucleusCMS.


18 comments:

"The good news is..." sounding like not-so-good news, Wraith. And the bad news seems like only a preview of worse to come.

The Asian market was taking an even bigger hit than ours did Tuesday. It was "getting hammered." ( ~Anderson Cooper's 360, CNN - Breaking: "Asian sell-off triggered by plunge in shares on Wall Street." ) Wondering how the European market will do following that.

Yet, {{ ...hope endures ... morning's fire waits... }}
by: Foiled Goil (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 02:39
Maybe I'll just get my last bit of money and head off to Pepper's with the real blackdog, fire up the 12' flatbottom with the 6 hp outboard and head out to somewhere. The river is still high so getting around isn't a problem. Maybe head downstream for a few hours. 6 gallons of gas lasts a while in this small craft.

Hard to be opportunistic in these times, maybe I'll see an Ivory Billed. Doubtful.
by: blackdog (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 03:17
Good morning, PT.

I wanted to tell you that I received your message about that upcoming interview, but I got it too late to be able to join. I do thank you for bringing into the discussion my concerns (shared by Minstrel Boy) about redeployment.

I most definitely anticipate the publication of the interview.

One interesting side note about speaking with veterans of the American-Iraqi War is that I used to talk to more than a few of them on a regular basis, mostly those at school and others I met through those who were my students. Now, the situation has changed: only a few of them are still around; most have been recalled to active duty.

There's one group out here that seems to have been "lost" to the system. They still train, but they openly talk about how no one at the Pentagon seems to know they're out here. I told one of them a couple weeks ago that, if they wanted me to, I could make some calls to Washington to let everybody know they're here.

My joke didn't go over very well at all.

It seems that gallows humor isn't as popular as it once was.

The Dark Wraith will have to think more carefully before he makes quips that include the prospect of the death for the audience.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 08:53
"There's one group out here that seems to have been "lost" to the system."

Perhaps they're the ones who will be used for "civilian crowd control".
by: PeterofLoneTree (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 09:04
It's the very same group about which I wrote on that topic, Peter.

The Dark Wraith, for his own part (and given that he favors gallows humor), finds that worth at least a brief, if rather nervous, laugh.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 09:18
Good morning, blackdog.

Speaking as one who comes from a family of men who were boaters (one was even a boat and motor dealer), I can understand your plan to use a nice watercraft to head for the proverbial hills, although I'd recommend some decent horsepower in a good Evinrude if you're planning to run against a downhill current.

For my own part, I'm not into boating, though: three incidents on the water during my childhood and adolescence changed my life in ways I would, in retrospect, prefer to have avoided. Two of those incidents were too weird for me to recount, even after all these years; and the somewhat understated nature of the weirdness makes the weirdness all the more weird.

The Dark Wraith has enough problems with credibility as it is.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 09:35
Good morning, Foiled Goil.

I wanted to let you know that I did, indeed, get your e-mail message this morning. (The explanation for what's going on over at The Dark Wraith Forums can be found in a sidebar panel and in the comments over there.) Unfortunately, I cannot respond via e-mail because both of my principal e-mail domains are on a couple of e-mail blacklists. I can send e-mail to some targets just fine; others, I have to use plain text formatting; and still others are just bouncing me back. It appears that some concerned soul registered the complaint with black hole services, and I am now in the wholly insufferable, long process of getting off those lists. (This happened once before, and it took me months to shake off the blacklistings.)

I keep thinking to myself that all this nonsense will end one day, and I am absolutely right about that. I would prefer, of course, to have the nonsense end before I pass from this good Earth.

The Dark Wraith longs for a return to the simpler times of the Neolithic Era, when the Internet had not yet been discovered by members of ButtHead Tribe.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 09:47
Gosh, Wraith, what part of "Unless a man be born again of water and the spirit, he cannot enter the kingdom of God" do you not understand? And, yeah I know the Baptists have a somewhat unorthodox method of anointing, but you have to "roll with the flow". Roll with the flow!?! PoLT, overwhelmed with his own humor, falls out of his chair.
by: PeterofLoneTree (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 09:48
The Dark Wraith is, for his own part, still in his chair.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 09:55
the market right now reminds me of some old, early silent film experiments that a producer friend of mine once screened after dinner. one of them, in particular, involved cutting between interior and exterior shots, switching between slow motion and up-to-speed shots. it was a six minute (one reel) depiction of a train wreck. car by car. it began with a shot of the engineer and fireman dozing in the cab with the throttle tied off. they snoozed right past the sign warning of the bridge out. when they understood what was going to happen it was far too late to do anything. progressing through the train showed people that slept all the way through. people making the decision to jump and take their chances as opposed to continuing the ride to certain death. others, making their peace with something they perceived as inevitable. in the club car, after talking with the conductor, the bartender looks at the captains of industry assembled announces "open bar!" and leaves them to their fate. this little reel of celluloid (since preserved digitally) was one of the earliest attempts at telling a complete story, to cut between scenes, to use small vignettes to tell a larger story, to use special effects (it was not a real train that car, by car, plunged over the cliff). one very poigniant slice shows a mother, in only a few seconds, going through every emotion of the decision process before she tosses her young daughter into the arms of a young man who jumped from a previous car. the look on his face, as he stands there, holding the child, watching the cars as they plunge down into the abyss, is exquisite. it shows, from a base of comprehension, wonder, awe, resignation, terror, confusion and just about every other possible emotion as he realizes that from this moment on, all life has changed forever.

(i take comfort in knowing that i've mostly already jumped)
by: Minstrel Boy (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 11:04
Wow! I thought I was doom and gloom but I feel like a regular Polyanna at the moment. I wish I owned a self sufficient farm with a steady water supply.

You forgot the prisons and holding camps, of which there are sure to be many. Seven years of the crap and my country, which on the whole remains oblivious, has not the vaguest concept of how far behind we are or how much further we are going to fall.

What really sucks is that there is no punishment for those who destroyed us, not that it would do anything to change our impending involuntary contraction. sad
by: Debra (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 12:36
Hence, Debra, my story about when my mother was taking a tomcat to the vet to get fixed, and I asked her if that surgery really did calm down a trouble-making puss. As she marched out the door, cat in hand, she shot back, "No, but it sure teaches him who's boss."

The Dark Wraith should start looking for a vet who specializes in neo-cons.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 12:46
Thanks for reinforcing what I've been feeling DW rthy
Interesting read about Goldman's possible attempt to manipulate the markets:
http://www.economicpolicymonitor.com/2007/03/goldman-looking-for-fire-sales-in.html
In brief --

"So what do we have from WSJ this morning? Reporter Kate Kelly at WSJ reports that:
Seeing growing turmoil in the market for risky home loans as an opportunity, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is looking at pushing deeper into the business, ramping up its own subprime-lending operation and pondering the purchase of another...Goldman Chief Financial Officer David Viniar indicated that the brokerage is perusing the subprime sector for fire-sale prices.

Is this hype, or reality? Since when are you a buyer of something and announce to the world that you are going to be a buyer?

When you really want to buy something at a fire sale, you keep your mouth shut, do it on the down low and hope no one else figures out what you are doing. You don't call up a WSJ reporter and fill her in on your great scheme.

Or did Goldman get the BIG call?

Did former Goldman chief Henry Paulson, now Treasury Secretary and head of the Plunge Protection Team, put a call into his brothers at Goldman and get them to put the word out at WSJ, in an attempt to prop up the markets?"
by: Jersey Cynic (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 13:43
Good afternoon, Jersey Cynic.

Only in part was this a PR move. Far more of it was based upon implicit guarantees that are not uncommon in Treasury/Fed/private market stabilization exercises.

The use of liquidity infusions has about run its course. It has created an overhang that simply cannot be supported by building more of the overhang, so the government and the Federal Reserve are now in the position of either growing up, and coming to grips and dealing with the accumulating mess they've made to cover their incompetence up to now, or finding another means by which to keep the situation under control until they can hand off the White House to the next President.

The Dark Wraith is pretty sure he knows which way the cat will swing on that choice.
by: Dark Wraith (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 14:20
Blessed are the visionaries for the oil companies-----for they shall be supremely comforted by the annual profit sheet. Let us pray....
by: Missouri Mule (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 14:32
Check out the post by PoLT over at blondesense with the links to the reuters articles.

Does not sound reassuring at all. Fortunately I live in a neighborhood with nothing over a single story, so I may not get slammed by a hurtling investor.
by: blackdog (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 16:29
Good ev'ning, Wraith. I knew about the email glitches. (Again. Sigh.) Perhaps that "concerned soul" deserves a lesson in the salvation of its own damn self or, even better, should suffer the consequences of being sent to its own black hole? (I had missed the sidebar, first time around. Whoops. Blaming it on being overly tired.)

You've got so many projects under way and I do apologize for my cranky rantedness this morning. It is a comfort to know you understand my little frustrations.

On another note, my most wonderful times were spent on the water -- I grew up boating and stayed at it most of my life. (There's more to the story, but I'll just cut to the highlights...) The only real bad experience that comes to mind for all the years was what turned into the coldest and wettest July vacations ever, and the trip back from across the lake... in 35/40mph easterly winds ( they had "slowed down" ) and 12-15ft rolling seas, under canvas, in the rain, wearing life jackets. Normally a trip of about an hour and ten minutes, port to port, that one took three and a half hours just to get back to our river's lighthouse, then another half hour to get to a snug harbor to untense our nerves before calling it a week and heading home. The freakiest part was looking for the island we refer to as the half-way point. (When you're in the middle of a lake with no sight of shore, knowing that even though you are keeping the correct compass heading, the winds can veer you off course.) The captain of the boat we were traveling with hailed us on the radio to say he had spotted the island and said to look off the port bow. We did. Collecting myself after seeing what he had referred to, and then how it changed, I hailed back, "That ... was a wave??

Jeebus.
by: Foiled Goil (contact) - 14 Mar '07 - 22:17
A biz.yahoo.com source, which I suppose could be considered MSM, uses the "D" word in an article entitled "Is America Headed for a Depression?"
by: PeterofLoneTree (contact) - 15 Mar '07 - 21:27



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Title: Shadows from a Future Arriving
Date posted: 13 Mar '07 - 23:45
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Filed under: Editorial
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